FG TACKLES ‘MISLEADING’ DEBT CLAIMS, DISMISSES MAKINDE’S ₦250BN-A-STATE NLNG ALLEGATION

…Says revenue surged 72% to ₦6.2trn as interest-to-revenue ratio dropped 32 points; Presidency says Oyo governor’s ₦9trn dividend claim does not add up

By Franklin Adole
The Federal Government on Sunday pushed back against two major claims over the state of the nation’s finances, insisting that Nigeria’s debt position is improving rather than deteriorating and dismissing Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde’s allegation that ₦250 billion in NLNG dividends due to each state is being withheld until after the 2027 elections.

In separate interventions, the Federal Ministry of Finance challenged interpretations of the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update suggesting that Federal Government interest payments had risen to 124 per cent of revenue in the first half of 2026, while the Presidency said Makinde’s NLNG claim was mathematically inconsistent with the historical dividends paid by the gas company.

The Finance Ministry said federal revenue jumped by 72 per cent from ₦3.6 trillion in the first half of 2025 to ₦6.2 trillion in H1 2026, while interest payments increased at a slower 38 per cent, from ₦5.6 trillion to ₦7.7 trillion.

Consequently, it said, the interest-to-revenue ratio actually fell by 32 percentage points—from 156 per cent in H1 2025 to 124 per cent in H1 2026—while the gap between interest payments and revenue narrowed from ₦2 trillion to ₦1.5 trillion.

The government argued that the 124 per cent figure being cited in public commentary was misleading because it compared interest obligations that included debts serviced by the Federal Government on behalf of other tiers of government with an incomplete federal revenue figure.

According to the Ministry, the revenue calculation also excludes independent revenues already earned by government agencies and enterprises but not yet remitted to the Treasury.

It further argued that government revenues are typically stronger in the second half of the year because of the statutory timing of some tax payments, making a six-month snapshot an inappropriate measure of Nigeria’s overall debt sustainability.

The Ministry pointed to 2025 as an example, saying the same ratio stood at 156 per cent in the first half of that year but eventually closed below 60 per cent on a full-year debt-service-to-revenue basis.

More significantly, it said the World Bank itself projects Nigeria’s full-year 2026 debt service—including interest and principal—at 46 per cent of revenue, which the government described as the more appropriate measure of the country’s fiscal position.

The Ministry also maintained that every borrowing undertaken by the Federal Government falls within limits approved by the National Assembly under the 2026 Appropriation Act and approved borrowing plan, and complies with the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Debt Management Office Act.

It urged analysts to compare figures covering the same levels of government and to distinguish half-year fiscal snapshots from full-year debt-sustainability measures.

The fiscal clarification came as the Presidency separately rejected Makinde’s claim that the Federal Government was withholding an NLNG dividend windfall amounting to ₦250 billion for each of the 36 states.

Makinde had told a 2027 Budget Stakeholders’ Consultative Engagement at the University of Ibadan that each state was expected to receive ₦250 billion, alleging that the money would now not be released until after the 2027 elections.

The governor said Oyo State had already identified projects on which it intended to deploy its share, questioning why the funds should be delayed because of the election.

But Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, described the claim as false, arguing that the numbers could not be reconciled with NLNG’s dividend history or the Federation Account revenue-sharing formula.

According to the Presidency, ₦250 billion for each of the 36 states alone would amount to ₦9 trillion, even before allocations to the Federal Government, Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments were considered.

With states receiving 26.72 per cent of distributable Federation Account revenue, the Presidency calculated that producing a ₦9 trillion states’ share would require NLNG dividends exceeding ₦33.68 trillion—or about $25 billion—in a single declaration.

It said NLNG had never made a dividend payment of that magnitude.

According to Onanuga, NLNG has paid approximately $21.5 billion in dividends to the Federation over the past 25 years, with less than $3 billion realised since President Bola Tinubu assumed office.

The Presidency therefore argued that the amount implied by Makinde’s claim would exceed NLNG’s entire cumulative dividend payments to the Federation over a quarter of a century.

Onanuga also accused Makinde of injecting politics into discussions of public finances as the country moves towards the 2027 presidential election, urging the governor to base his interventions on figures that could be independently scrutinised.