Nigeria could earn an additional N6.8 trillion ($4.3 billion) in oil revenue in 2026 as higher crude prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, strengthen the country’s fiscal outlook, according to a report by BMI.
In its Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment published in April 2026, BMI raised Nigeria’s real GDP growth forecast slightly to 4.4 percent for 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 4.3 percent, citing stronger oil earnings and ongoing domestic reforms.
The report said Brent crude is now expected to average $78 per barrel in 2026, compared with a pre-conflict projection of $67, a shift it attributed to supply disruptions linked to the prolonged tensions between the United States and Iran.
“Higher Brent crude prices… should deliver a fiscal windfall of about N6.8 trillion, or just over one percent of GDP,” BMI said in the statement.
Oil prices have surged in recent weeks as Iran intensified attacks on energy and transport infrastructure across the Middle East, raising concerns over supply security. The escalation followed the breakdown of negotiations between Washington and Tehran after 21 hours of talks failed to produce a resolution.
After 39 days of hostilities, both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire in late April, brokered with support from Pakistan and China. Despite the pause, uncertainty in global energy markets has persisted.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is seen as a relative beneficiary of the price rally, with BMI noting the country is less exposed to the broader economic disruptions affecting other sub-Saharan economies.
The improved outlook is also tied to domestic policy changes, particularly the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy, which has aligned local petrol prices more closely with global benchmarks.
BMI said the reform has allowed higher global oil prices to translate more directly into government revenues, although it has also pushed domestic fuel costs higher, with petrol prices rising by more than 50 percent since the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
A relatively stronger naira has helped to contain imported inflation, the report added, noting that price pressures linked to fuel costs are expected to be temporary.
Separate projections from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group suggest the potential upside could be even higher, estimating that a prolonged Middle East conflict could generate as much as N30.2 trillion in additional oil revenue.
Meanwhile, the global supply outlook remains uncertain following a production decision by OPEC+ and the exit of a key member.
The alliance said that it would increase output by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. The adjustment forms part of previously agreed voluntary production changes first announced in April 2023.
“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day,” OPEC+ said in a statement issued after the meeting.
The increase will be led by major producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia, though analysts say the move is largely symbolic due to ongoing logistical constraints affecting exports.
Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas flows, have faced disruptions amid rising regional instability.
OPEC+ data showed that crude output from the group fell by 27.5 percent to 20.79 million bpd in March, underscoring the volatility in supply.
The production decision came days after the United Arab Emirates formally exited OPEC on April 28, with the withdrawal taking effect on May 1. The move followed years of tension with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and strategic direction.
Although the UAE’s departure does not dissolve the broader OPEC+ framework, which includes Russia and other allied producers, it removes one of the group’s more assertive voices on output policy.
OPEC+ did not reference the UAE in its official communiqué, signalling a cautious approach to the split.