Nigeria’s crude oil production fell sharply in February, leaving the country below its OPEC quota just as global oil prices surged amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Output from Africa’s largest producer declined to 1.31 million barrels a day in February, down 10.7 percent from 1.45 million bpd in January, according to the March 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report issued by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries on March 11.
The drop places Nigeria about 190,000 barrels a day below its OPEC production target of 1.5 million bpd, limiting the country’s ability to take full advantage of a rally in global crude markets triggered by intensifying geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Oil prices spiked earlier in the week as the conflict raised fears of supply disruptions across the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly one-third of global crude output. Brent crude briefly climbed above $100 a barrel on March 9, the highest level since July 2022, before easing to around $87 a barrel on March 10 as traders reassessed supply risks.
The surge in prices reflects growing concern that hostilities could threaten shipping lanes or energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors.
For Nigeria, however, the price rally comes at a time when domestic production continues to face structural constraints.
Industry analysts say the country’s inability to meet its OPEC quota could blunt the fiscal benefits of higher oil prices, reducing potential gains in export earnings and foreign-exchange inflows at a time when the government is seeking to stabilize public finances.
Despite the decline, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, narrowly ahead of Libya, which pumped 1.28 million barrels a day during the period.
OPEC said the figures were based on direct communication from Nigerian authorities, while secondary sources estimated Nigeria’s output at 1.46 million barrels a day, suggesting a smaller month-on-month decline.
Across the broader alliance, crude production by OPEC and its partners averaged 42.72 million barrels a day in February, an increase of 445,000 barrels from January, according to the report.
The group and its allies agreed on March 2 to increase collective output by 206,000 barrels a day starting in April, a move intended to stabilize the market amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.
The conflict driving the market volatility is also imposing significant financial costs on the United States.
The opening week of the war with Iran has already cost Washington more than $11 billion, according to a Pentagon briefing to lawmakers on March 11, details of which were reported by The New York Times citing officials familiar with the closed-door session.
The $11.3 billion estimate covers the first six days of military operations and excludes costs related to troop deployments and equipment buildup before the strikes began, suggesting the total could rise significantly as the conflict continues.
Defense officials told lawmakers that roughly $5.6 billion worth of munitions were used during the first two days of fighting, a pace of spending far higher than early public estimates.
Independent analysts have offered similar assessments of the financial strain of the conflict.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost about $3.7 billion, averaging roughly $891 million a day, with much of the spending unbudgeted.
Meanwhile, an online Iran War Cost Tracker estimated total U.S. war expenditures had already exceeded $17 billion as of Thursday morning, highlighting the rapid pace at which the conflict is consuming resources.
Energy traders are closely monitoring developments because any escalation could disrupt oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, tightening global supply and pushing prices higher.
For Nigeria, the combination of rising prices and declining production presents a mixed outlook.
Higher crude prices typically boost government revenue and support external reserves. But those benefits depend on the country’s ability to sustain output levels.
Persistent challenges including pipeline vandalism, crude theft, operational setbacks and aging infrastructure continue to hamper Nigeria’s production capacity.
Until those constraints are addressed, analysts say Africa’s largest oil producer may struggle to fully capitalize on periods of elevated global oil prices even as geopolitical tensions keep energy markets on edge.