…Proposed Direct Primaries Spark Mass Registration Drive
…Shekarau Defection Triggers Gains for APC in Kano
By Abu Adamu
A high-stakes contest is unfolding within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as supporters of Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso intensify grassroots mobilisation efforts aimed at checking the strong influence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar ahead of the party’s presidential primaries.
The battlelines are being drawn around the ADC’s likely adoption of direct primaries, a system that empowers all registered members of the party to vote in selecting its presidential candidate. The move has triggered an aggressive push for mass registration, particularly among Obi’s supporters, who have taken to social media to urge Nigerians, especially young voters, to join the party and participate in the process.
The campaign, which requires prospective members to register using their National Identification Number (NIN), is being framed as a decisive opportunity to influence the outcome of the primaries and reshape Nigeria’s political trajectory. Supporters argue that the direct primary format reduces the influence of entrenched political structures and places greater power in the hands of ordinary party members.
At the same time, Obi’s base is increasingly looking to align with the Kwankwasiyya movement, a political bloc loyal to Kwankwaso, in what appears to be a strategic effort to consolidate anti-Atiku forces within the party. The movement has pushed back against claims by Atiku that he remains the most influential northern politician, insisting instead that both Obi and Kwankwaso command what it describes as “organic” nationwide followership rooted in public trust rather than political inducement.
This emerging alignment is seen by insiders as a potential game-changer if both camps can translate their perceived popularity into verifiable membership strength ahead of the primaries.
However, Atiku’s supporters are dismissing the growing Obi/Kwankwaso coalition as largely overstated, maintaining that the former vice president retains a formidable and deeply entrenched political structure, particularly across northern Nigeria. Sources within his camp argue that the ADC coalition itself draws heavily from the legacy network of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), historically aligned with former President Muhammadu Buhari, and that Atiku has already secured critical backing from key figures within that structure.
According to one source, Atiku has been steadily building political machinery across all 19 northern states while driving a coordinated membership registration effort that could ultimately determine the outcome of the direct primaries. The source also questioned the actual numerical strength of both the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements within the ADC, suggesting that their influence may be overstated beyond online activism.
The contest is further complicated by shifting political dynamics in Kano, where the recent defection of former governor Ibrahim Shekarau from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) has triggered a major realignment. Shekarau’s move, backed by his influential Shura bloc, is widely seen as the transfer of a structured grassroots network, weakening opposition prospects in the state while strengthening the APC’s foothold.
The development has also deprived the broader opposition space of a key northern power broker, even as figures within the ADC jostle for control of the region’s political base. The Kano factor remains critical, given its status as one of Nigeria’s most vote-rich states.
Meanwhile, the APC has continued to project confidence ahead of the 2027 elections. Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf described Shekarau’s return as a significant boost, declaring the party ready to win all elective positions, while Cross River State Governor Bassey Otu said the ruling party would head into the elections stronger and more united.
Political observers say the unfolding struggle within the ADC reflects a broader test of whether Nigeria’s opposition can successfully transition from personality-driven movements to a cohesive, grassroots-powered political force. They note that the direct primary system, while more inclusive, places a premium on organisational depth, verifiable membership, and the ability to mobilise voters beyond rhetoric.
Analysts further argue that the outcome of the ADC primaries could shape the trajectory of the 2027 elections, warning that internal fragmentation may ultimately weaken the opposition’s chances against a consolidated ruling party. According to several pundits, the coming months will reveal whether the Obi–Kwankwaso alignment can mature into a formidable bloc or whether Atiku’s established structures will once again prove decisive in a competitive national contest.