…Adedeji: Subsidy removal saved Nigeria N53 Trillion, tough policies averted total collapse
By Yinka Giwa
The Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr. Zacch Adedeji, has declared that Nigeria was on the brink of economic collapse before President Bola Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms, warning that the naira could have crashed to about N3,500 to the United States dollar while the country would have been burdened with an unsustainable N53 trillion petrol subsidy bill had the administration failed to act.
Speaking during an interview on Channels Television, Adedeji mounted a robust defence of the Tinubu administration’s removal of fuel subsidy and unification of the foreign exchange market, describing the measures as painful but indispensable to preventing the economy from sliding into deeper crisis.
According to him, the country had reached its lowest economic point before the reforms were introduced.
“At that time we were at the lowest point. Actually, we’d reached the bottom, and if the President had not taken that decision at that time, only God knows where we would have been now,” he said.
Adedeji argued that maintaining the petrol subsidy in the face of rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions would have imposed a crippling burden on public finances.
“The subsidy today would have been N53 trillion if President Tinubu had not removed it, given what is happening in Iran, given what is happening globally, and the total budget of Nigeria today is N63 trillion,” he said.
He noted that such a subsidy burden would have consumed virtually the entire federal budget, leaving little room for infrastructure development, education, healthcare, security, and other essential public services.
The NRS Chairman also maintained that Nigeria’s former foreign exchange regime was no longer sustainable, warning that retaining it would have pushed the naira into unprecedented depreciation.
“The exchange rate today would have been N3,500 to a dollar if that had not been done,” he stated.
Adedeji said there was now growing evidence that the reforms, despite their painful short-term consequences for households and businesses, were beginning to stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence.
He cited improvements in Nigeria’s fiscal position, external reserves, trade performance, and capital inflows as evidence that the policies were yielding results.
According to figures released by the NRS, Nigeria’s trade balance improved dramatically from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
He also pointed to increasing export diversification, noting that exports of refined and other petroleum products rose by 51 per cent year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, although crude oil remained the country’s dominant export.
Adedeji further disclosed that capital importation had risen sharply from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, with another $10.37 billion recorded during the first quarter of 2026 alone.
He said government revenue had also improved significantly, with tax collections increasing from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026.
According to him, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $51.9 billion as of July 2026, while the country’s balance of payments had moved from deficit into surplus.
He also highlighted the performance of the capital market, saying market capitalisation had climbed from about N30 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.
On the social front, Adedeji said the national minimum wage had doubled since 2023, while government interventions had helped reduce the number of out-of-school children from an estimated 20 million to 18.3 million, citing UNICEF figures.
He also credited the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative with domestic refineries, including Dangote Refinery, for helping Nigeria transition from a net importer to a net exporter of petroleum products.
Adedeji acknowledged that the reforms had imposed severe short-term hardships on Nigerians through higher fuel prices, inflation, and increased cost of living, but insisted that they were necessary to restore fiscal discipline, correct structural distortions, and lay the foundation for long-term economic growth.
His comments come amid continuing public debate over the impact of the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms, which supporters argue have averted fiscal collapse while critics maintain they have sharply worsened the living conditions of millions of Nigerians.
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