By Precious Obi
Between July and October 2025, Nigeria’s power sector lost ₦187 billion to unbilled energy. On paper, this looks like a technical failure, poor billing efficiency, weak collections, and operational lapses by electricity distribution companies (DisCos). In reality, it is something deeper and more damaging: a structural breakdown of incentives, accountability, and trust at the very end of the electricity value chain.
Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) shows that while DisCos received electricity worth over ₦1.17 trillion during the four-month period, a significant portion never translated into customer bills. Even more worrying, a chunk of what was billed was never collected. The result is a liquidity crisis that continues to ripple upstream from generation companies to gas suppliers threatening the stability of the entire market.
Let us be clear: losing ₦187 billion in unbilled energy in four months is not an accident. It reflects systemic weaknesses that have been flagged repeatedly by NERC, the World Bank, and industry analysts for over a decade.
Three issues stand out: First, metering failure. NERC itself has consistently linked low billing efficiency to inadequate metering. Estimated billing remains widespread, creating perverse incentives. Customers distrust bills they do not understand, while DisCos lack precise consumption data to optimise revenue.
According to World Bank power sector diagnostics, utilities without near-universal metering rarely exceed 85% billing efficiency, a ceiling Nigeria is repeatedly hitting and falling below.
Second, uneven enforcement and accountability. The October 2025 data shows Kano DisCo achieving a billing efficiency of 98.05%, while Benin and Yola DisCos hovered around 65–66%.
This disparity proves that technical constraints alone do not explain the losses. Where management discipline, enforcement, and local engagement are stronger, performance improves. Where they are weaker, inefficiency becomes normalised.
Third, a broken social contract. Collection efficiency averaged just 82.66% in October, with some DisCos collecting less than half of their billed revenue. This is not simply about poverty. It is also about legitimacy. Consumers are less likely to pay when supply is unreliable, billing is opaque, and energy theft appears consequence-free. As the International Energy Agency has noted, willingness to pay is strongly correlated with perceived service quality and fairness.
Here is the uncomfortable truth: inefficiencies at the distribution level do not disappear. They are redistributed.
When DisCos fail to bill or collect, they still owe market operators and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc. The shortfall accumulates as sector debt, which policymakers then attempt to plug through tariff hikes, subsidies, or government bailouts. The result is a cycle where compliant customers subsidise inefficiency, while non-payment and theft continue largely unchecked.
In October, DisCos were allowed to charge an average tariff of ₦116.25 per kilowatt-hour but collected only ₦95.89 on average. That gap is not theoretical, it is the space where sector reform quietly collapses.
Nigeria’s power reforms have spent years debating tariffs, generation capacity, and transmission upgrades. These matter. But the data is clear: the retail end is where value is currently being destroyed at scale.
Countries that have stabilised their electricity markets from India to parts of Latin America did not do so by endlessly recapitalising utilities. They focused on universal metering and data integrity, performance-based regulation with real penalties, clear separation between technical losses and commercial theft, and consumer trust as an explicit reform objective.
The African Development Bank has repeatedly emphasised that distribution reform, not generation expansion, delivers the fastest gains in sector solvency.
If Nigeria is serious about power sector sustainability, three shifts are urgent.
First, metering must become non-negotiable, not aspirational. The National Mass Metering Programme cannot remain a slow-moving intervention. Meter deployment targets should be tied to DisCo licensing conditions, with escalating sanctions for non-compliance.
Second, regulation must move from reporting to consequence. Publishing performance data is not enough. Persistent underperformers should face restructuring, loss of franchise areas, or enforced management changes. Markets respond to incentives, not sympathy.
Third, consumers must be treated as partners, not adversaries. Transparent billing, service-level accountability, and visible enforcement against energy theft are essential to restoring payment discipline. Trust is infrastructure and Nigeria’s power sector currently lacks it.
The loss of ₦187 billion to unbilled energy in four months is alarming, but it is also instructive.
It tells us exactly where reform is failing and where it must now concentrate.
Until Nigeria fixes the last mile where electricity meets the consumer, no amount of generation capacity, tariff adjustment, or policy rebranding will stabilize the sector. The numbers do not lie.
And they are telling us that the real power crisis is not on the grid, but in governance.
• Precious Ebere-Chinonso Obi, CEO of Do Take Action is an independent consultant on edtech, climate change, public policy, and women’s procurement empowerment.
…This article was first published in The Niche.
Unlike traditional aid systems that often perpetuate cycles of stagnation, Elumelu’s strategy is anchored on the radical empowerment of the individual as a primary creator of communal wealth. His guiding principle is as profound as it is pragmatic: Africa’s development cannot be an outsourced endeavor; it must be constructed by Africans themselves, fueled by domestic ingenuity and sustained by local markets.
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This shift in the developmental narrative represents a move away from the poverty alleviation mindset toward a wealth creation framework that prizes dignity and self-reliance above all.
The operational excellence of the TEF is further codified in the clarity of its mission: to empower African entrepreneurs across all 54 sovereign nations. This is not a localized pilot program but a continental mandate designed to catalyze a transformation that is both inclusive of marginalized groups and sustainable across economic cycles.
At its core, the Foundation envisions a self-reliant Africa where entrepreneurship serves as the primary engine for job creation, technological innovation, and social stability. This mission is executed through a meticulously structured ecosystem that synthesizes $5,000 in non-refundable seed capital with rigorous business training, high-level mentorship, and unprecedented access to global markets. This holistic approach ensures that beneficiaries are not merely funded in a vacuum but are technologically and managerially equipped to navigate the complexities of competitive global environments.
Reinforcing this strategic direction is the Foundation’s Chief Executive Officer, Somachi Chris-Asoluka, whose leadership has emphasized that TEF’s mandate transcends fiscal support to achieve the unlocking of human potential at a historic scale. In the administrative halls of the Foundation, an application is never viewed as a mere request for capital; it is scrutinized as a bold, nascent vision for Africa’s future. Under Chris-Asoluka’s stewardship, the Foundation has positioned entrepreneurship as a unifying socio-political force, a mechanism capable of dismantling the barriers of unemployment, gender inequality, and economic exclusion.
The true metric of success, in this view, is the multiplier effect, the phenomenon where one empowered entrepreneur becomes a localized anchor for dozens of livelihoods, creating a ripple effect of stability for entire regions.
This philosophy finds its most potent practical expression in the TEF Entrepreneurship Programme. Since its inception in 2015, the program has disbursed over $100 million to more than 24,000 entrepreneurs. The macro-economic implications are staggering: the initiative has facilitated the creation of over 1.5 million jobs and generated $4.2 billion in revenue. These figures are far more than clinical statistics; they represent a fundamental reimagining of the African future. They speak to revitalised communities where the youths no longer consider the Jakpa option as their only path to success, but instead see their own communities as fertile ground for innovation.
The foundation’s 2026 milestone further underscores the accelerating momentum. In a landmark announcement that captured global attention, TEF unveiled 3,200 young entrepreneurs selected for its latest cohort, chosen from a staggering pool of over 265,000 applicants. Elumelu has described this initiative as a mission to “democratize luck and prosperity,” a phrase that acknowledges the vast talent pool currently stifled by a lack of institutional support. His conviction remains steadfast, entrepreneurship is Africa’s most viable pathway to sustainable development. This perspective reframes the act of spreading wealth not as an act of altruism, but as “enlightened self-interest.” In an interconnected continent where poverty in one region poses a collective security and economic risk to all, the empowerment of these young Africans becomes the only logical safeguard for the prosperity of the few.
The tangible impact of this model is best viewed through the experiences of the beneficiaries, whose successes validate the Africapitalist theory. In Nigeria, Samira Abdullahi has leveraged the TEF framework to scale her fashion enterprise by 200 percent, generating $40,000 in annual revenue while simultaneously providing vocational training to young women in her community. In the southern tip of the continent, South Africa’s Kemiso Motholo has scaled a venture that now impacts over 20,000 lives, while in East Africa, Kenya’s Aisha Langat has pioneered an agro-allied business generating over $500,000 in revenue and providing critical market access to 12,000 farmers.
These testimonies illustrate a universal truth: when African entrepreneurs are granted the tools of modern business, they do not merely seek personal profit; they become engines of community development, solving local problems with global standards of efficiency.
When viewed through a global lens, Elumelu’s model invites compelling comparisons with the world’s most influential philanthropic icons. While the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has revolutionised global health, Warren Buffett redefined large-scale charitable giving, Jack Ma championed digital inclusion in Asia, the TEF model is uniquely tailored to African structural reality. Beyond these global comparisons, Elumelu’s work resonates with a profound moral urgency within the African political context. At a time when many on the continent are preoccupied with the accumulation of political and personal capital, Elumelu is deliberately channeling his resources to expand the horizons of others. This contrast highlights a burgeoning shift in the African leadership ethos, a move towards prioritizing legacy over accumulation and measurable impact over fleeting influence.
The Foundation’s success also shines a spotlight on the vital importance of global collaboration. At the recent 2026 unveiling, TEF Co-Founder Dr. Awele Elumelu issued a clarion call for expanded partnerships, noting that while thousands are supported annually, hundreds of thousands of viable ideas remain unfunded due to scale constraints. International partners, including the European Union, and UNICEF, have increasingly recognized the TEF program as a transformative force capable of reshaping Africa’s economic trajectory. These partnerships signify a growing global consensus that the most effective way to engage with Africa is through the support of its entrepreneurs.
Ultimately, the significance of the Tony Elumelu Foundation extends far beyond the provision of seed capital. By fostering innovation in critical sectors such as green energy, agrotech, and the creative industries, TEF is building the infrastructure of the future. As the continent navigates the complexities of the 21st-century global economy and prepares to host the world’s largest workforce by 2050, the TEF model offers the only scalable solution to the challenge of productive engagement. It represents a blueprint for a new economic order where prosperity is shared, opportunity is created through merit, and the African narrative finally shifts from potential to performance. Through the Foundation, the vision of an Africa developed by Africans is no longer a distant aspiration; it is a living, breathing reality that is already in motion, rewriting the history of a continent, one entrepreneur at a time.
. Aibangbe is a Media and Public Relations Consultant