Dangote Petroleum Refinery is likely to operate below its installed capacity through the first half of 2026 as persistent technical challenges at a key conversion unit continue to constrain crude processing rates and gasoline output, according to a new report by energy analytics firm Kpler.
In a note titled Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven, published Thursday, Kpler said the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit remains the central bottleneck preventing a stable and sustained ramp-up at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Lekki facility. The firm warned that repeated outages and delays could extend the refinery’s commissioning phase well into next year.
Kpler estimates that the restart of the 200,000-barrel-per-day RFCC unit has been pushed to Feb. 10 and could slip further, following multiple disruptions since April 2025. The unit is critical to the refinery’s configuration, converting heavy residual streams into higher-value light products, including gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas.
Dangote’s operational outlook remains uncertain as the RFCC restart has been pushed to 10 February and could slip further, Kpler said, adding that the 200,000-barrel-per-day unit remains the key bottleneck keeping runs capped after repeated outages since April 2025.
RFCC units sit at the heart of complex refineries, enabling operators to maximise yields from heavier crude slates and materially improve margins. By using zeolite catalysts under high temperatures, the process upgrades low-value residues into transport fuels. When such units are unavailable or unstable, refineries are typically forced to operate at lower utilisation rates or rely on less efficient processing routes.
The report follows recent speculation about the refinery’s operational status. In early January, several media reports and social media posts claimed that the facility had shut down. Dangote Petroleum Refinery publicly denied those claims, stating that production remained ongoing and uninterrupted.
Reports suggesting a shutdown are false and misleading, the company said in a statement on Jan. 5. Production remains ongoing, stable, and uninterrupted. The refinery continues to supply 40 to 50 million litres of premium motor spirit daily through January and February, subject to market demand.
On Jan. 4, the refinery said it produced 50 million litres of premium motor spirit and evacuated 48 million litres, with existing stocks sufficient to cover more than 20 days of national consumption. It added that routine maintenance on select units had not affected overall output and that production of PMS, diesel, and Jet A-1 continued through fully operational units.
Kpler’s assessment suggests that while operations are continuing, the refinery remains far from steady-state performance. The firm estimates that crude runs in January averaged between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day and are expected to remain around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February, well below nameplate capacity.
Overall stabilisation remains months away, and RFCC reliability risks should keep the gasoline ramp-up constrained into the first half of 2026, the report said.
Market sources cited by Kpler pointed to unresolved technical issues within the RFCC work scope, increasing the risk of further delays given the complexity and reliability sensitivity of such units. The report also flagged the likelihood of a short maintenance outage on the refinery’s Crude Distillation Unit in early February, adding to near-term uncertainty.
Despite the RFCC downtime, the refinery has continued producing gasoline using other units, including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer and isomerisation units. However, those streams have been supplemented by a sharp increase in gasoline imports and blending components.
Kpler estimates that Dangote’s gasoline imports rose to about 45,000 barrels per day in January, helping to sustain supply while internal conversion capacity remained constrained. At the same time, crude imports into the refinery slowed materially, while exports of low-sulphur straight-run products increased, averaging about 120,000 barrels per day month to date.
Based on Kpler’s refinery model, January output is estimated at roughly 95,000 barrels per day of gasoline and nearly 120,000 barrels per day of middle distillates.
To mitigate the impact of RFCC unavailability, the refinery has shifted toward a lighter crude slate, with average API gravity between 37 and 39 since the fourth quarter of 2025. Kpler said the strategy is designed to preserve feedstock flexibility for CDU-linked secondary units and reduce disruption risks to gasoline and middle distillate production.
The operational challenges come amid broader regulatory and political scrutiny surrounding petroleum import licences and market dominance concerns involving the Dangote Group and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. In late November, the refinery reiterated its readiness to meet domestic fuel demand and pledged greater transparency.
The company said it was capable of supplying 1.5 billion litres of premium motor spirit per month in December and January, rising to 1.7 billion litres per month from February 2026. It also invited NMDPRA officials to be present on site from Dec. 1 to validate production figures and committed to publishing daily supply data.
Looking ahead, Kpler expects refinery runs to remain around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February, with its base case assuming RFCC ramp-up begins in the third week of the month. Under that scenario, average crude runs would rise to about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and roughly 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year.
Gasoline production is projected to average about 120,000 barrels per day in the first quarter and increase to around 150,000 barrels per day over the first half. However, Kpler cautioned that downside risks remain high, given the refinery’s operating record over the past year.
Refinery stabilisation is still likely months away, as RFCC reliability remains the key swing factor, the report said, noting that extended ramp-up periods of 24 to 36 months are common for mega-refineries globally.