By KTH Daily Economic Desk
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose slightly to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, reinforcing the reality that cost-of-living pressures remain firmly entrenched for most Nigerians, even as modest easing was recorded in food prices. The latest figures suggest that while the pace of price increases slowed toward the end of the year, households continue to struggle with high expenses, driven largely by energy costs, transport charges and wide regional disparities.
Data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the headline inflation rate in December reflected a continued rise in prices, with the CPI increasing to 131.2 points, up by 0.7 points from November. This confirms that inflationary pressures, though moderating, remain persistent across the economy.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 0.54 per cent, a significant slowdown from the 1.22 per cent recorded in November, indicating that prices are rising at a slower rate rather than falling outright. Economists describe this trend as disinflation, not relief, noting that everyday costs remain elevated.
Food inflation played a central role in tempering the overall figure. Although food inflation stood at 10.84 per cent year-on-year, it declined by -0.36 per cent month-on-month, reversing the upward movement recorded in November. The NBS attributed this decline to lower prices of staple items such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, beans, millet, onions, potatoes, vegetables and plantain, pointing to seasonal harvest effects and improved supply conditions in some markets.
For many households, especially in rural areas where food accounts for the largest share of spending, this offered limited short-term relief. However, analysts caution that the gains are fragile and could easily be wiped out by insecurity, supply disruptions or higher transport and energy costs.
Those costs remained a major source of pressure in December, as energy inflation surged to 2.74 per cent, making it the most significant contributor among all sub-indices. Rising fuel prices, electricity tariffs and transport costs continue to ripple through the economy, increasing production, distribution and service delivery expenses. Other sub-indices showed relative moderation, with farm produce at -0.41 per cent, services at 0.15 per cent, and goods at 0.64 per cent, underscoring the structural nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenge.
The data also revealed a widening gap between urban and rural experiences. Urban inflation stood at 14.85 per cent year-on-year, with prices rising 0.99 per cent month-on-month, slightly higher than in November. In contrast, rural inflation was lower at 14.56 per cent year-on-year and declined by -0.55 per cent month-on-month, reflecting stronger food price relief outside major cities. The figures explain why urban households continue to feel squeezed by rent, transport, energy and service costs, even as rural communities see marginal easing.
Inflationary pressures varied sharply across states. On a year-on-year basis, Abia recorded the highest headline inflation at 19.03 per cent, followed by Ogun at 18.80 per cent and Katsina at 18.66 per cent, while Sokoto at 8.61 per cent, Plateau at 9.05 per cent and Kaduna at 10.38 per cent recorded the slowest increases. Month-on-month figures showed even starker contrasts, with Cross River, Abia and Delta experiencing the fastest price increases, while Ondo, Gombe and Plateau recorded notable declines.
Food inflation followed a similar uneven pattern across the country, peaking year-on-year in Yobe, Ogun and the Federal Capital Territory, while Akwa Ibom, Sokoto and Plateau recorded the slowest increases. The NBS cautioned that state-level comparisons should be treated carefully, noting that consumption patterns and CPI weights differ across states, especially following the recent rebasing of the CPI, which shifted the base year from 2009 to 2024, with 2023 as the reference year.
Overall, the December inflation data paint a mixed picture. While the slowdown in the rate of increase offers a tentative pause in inflationary momentum, it does not amount to a reversal of the cost-of-living crisis. For policymakers, the figures underline the need for sustained interventions in energy pricing, transport costs, food supply chains and urban living expenses. For ordinary Nigerians, the numbers confirm a harsh reality: prices may be rising more slowly, but the pressure on household budgets remains relentless.