Speaker Warns of Debt Crisis as Tinubu Declares End to Borrowing

…Abbas Raises Alarm Over ₦149trn Debt Burden
…Tinubu, Edun Tout Record Revenues, Fiscal Reforms
…Analysts Worry About Contradictions

By Franklin Adole

Nigeria’s fiscal position has come under sharp focus after Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Abbas Tajudeen, warned that the nation’s debt profile had breached statutory limits, even as the Presidency only days earlier celebrated record revenues and declared an end to borrowing from local banks.

Last week, the Presidency announced that government revenues hit ₦20.59 trillion between January and August 2025, up 40.5 percent from ₦14.6 trillion in the same period last year. Non-oil revenues accounted for ₦15.69 trillion, or 75 percent of the total.

“This is the strongest fiscal performance in recent history,” presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga said, crediting reforms in tax administration, digitisation, and enforcement. President Bola Tinubu echoed the optimism during a meeting with the Buhari Organisation, boasting: “Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year, and we met it in August.”

The Presidency added that July’s disbursements to states and local governments crossed ₦2 trillion for the first time.

But on Monday, Speaker Abbas struck a sobering note at the opening of the 11th Annual Conference of the West Africa Association of Public Accounts Committees (WAAPAC) in Abuja. Represented by House Leader Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, Abbas revealed that Nigeria’s public debt climbed to ₦149.39 trillion (US$97 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, up from ₦121.7 trillion a year earlier. He said the debt-to-GDP ratio had risen to 52 percent, breaching the 40 percent ceiling set by law.

“This breach of our debt limit signals the strain on fiscal sustainability,” Abbas warned. “A significant share of our revenues is now tied to debt servicing rather than the things our people need most: roads, schools, hospitals, and innovation.”

He cautioned that without stronger oversight and transparency, reckless borrowing could trap future generations. To guard against this, Abbas pledged that all major borrowing proposals would now undergo public hearings under the House’s Open Parliament policy.

The Speaker’s warning highlights the paradox of rising revenues alongside mounting obligations. Analysts say the contrast exposes the complexity of Nigeria’s fiscal outlook: upbeat revenue gains on one hand, but an escalating debt burden on the other.

Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, also addressed the WAAPAC event with a more reassuring message. He said reforms were already yielding results, noting that Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped to 60 percent in 2024, while debt-to-GDP stood at 38.8 percent, which he described as “comfortable” by global benchmarks.

“Revenues rose by 34.7 percent in the first half of 2025,” Edun said. “Nigeria is turning the corner. The reforms are delivering measurable impact in investor confidence, reduced fuel imports, energy self-sufficiency, and value addition in our economy.”

Edun credited the gains to tough reforms, including subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, and a comprehensive tax overhaul. He stressed that future borrowing would be project-linked, transparent, and aligned with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Despite the reassurance, Speaker Abbas’s intervention underscores deep unease over Nigeria’s rising debt stock. While the Presidency projects a stronger fiscal base, questions linger over whether rising revenues can ease the debt burden—or whether Nigerians will continue to see more of their national wealth spent on debt servicing rather than tangible development.

BY THE NUMBERS

₦20.59 Trillion: Government revenue (Jan–Aug 2025), up 40.5% from 2024 — Presidency

₦15.69 Trillion: Collected from non-oil sources, now 75% of all revenues — Presidency

₦2 Trillion: Monthly FAAC allocations to states/local govts in July 2025 — Presidency

₦149.39 Trillion: Nigeria’s total public debt as of Q1 2025 (US$97bn), up from ₦121.7trn in 2024 — Speaker Abbas

52%: Debt-to-GDP ratio in Q1 2025 — well above the 40% legal ceiling — Speaker Abbas

60%: Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio in 2024 — down from previous highs — Minister Edun

38.8%: Debt-to-GDP ratio cited by Edun as “comfortable” vs global benchmarks