By Lai Olurode
What is evident from the unfolding political rigmarole, as being manifested by the coalition of political forces and movements across the political parties, is that Tinubu and his political party, the APC, aren’t resting on their oars nor relying solely on the power of incumbency as we approach the 2027 general elections.
The question may be asked as to what are creating doubts in the minds of the president and his men that the coming elections are a done deal? Electoral statistics from the 2023 general elections couldn’t have given any presidential aspirant of the APC stock room for optimistic feelings. The APC and the president nearly suffered an electoral tragedy. Had the major rival opposition political parties negotiated their differences effectively and prioritised winning as their goal, APC would probably have been a forgotten party or gasping for breath from the electoral stroke.
For the aspiring Tinubu of the APC, his party was then in shreds. Internal wranglings within the APC was never healed. APC was a political party divided from within and it almost fought itself to a standstill. The prospect of a Tinubu’s presidency then sent jitters down the spines of political gladiators. The fear, not completely imaginary, was based on the perception that Tinubu as the president of Nigeria will be too powerful. He has money, he’s adroit in political intrigues, he was the one who fought the former President Olusegun Obasanjo to a standstill, without blinking. He did this for three years, not minding the seizure of the local governments of Lagos State.
Indeed, Tinubu’s standoff with Obasanjo didn’t make him to call for a deal with the Presidency. Tinubu went away as a political ‘rebel’ and successfully created 57 local council development authorities from the hitherto 20 local governments in Lagos State. Obasanjo, it should be recalled, was a former military head of state and vicious leader. But Tinubu remained deviant. With an Attorney-General that was equally brave, a writ was filed against the Federal Government in respect of the illegal seizure of the Lagos State local government funds. Eventually, legal victory came the way of the Lagos State government under Tinubu as governor.
So, with a narrow win in 2023 and probably being uninterested in counting on INEC or rubbishing it’s autonomy or still not being sure of how INEC will behave, Tinubu has probably decided to seek greener pastures elsewhere. He hasn’t forgotten about his narrow escape from the electoral slaughter’s slab of 2023, with a vote of 8,794,726 or 36.61 per cent cast for APC; 6,984,520 or 29.07 per cent for PDP; and the 6,101,533 or 25.40 per cent for the Labour. It was clear that APC won because Tinubu had a date with destiny. This must have informed his decision to commence the 2027 electoral journey early as a means of walking away from a marginal victory. He is determined to advert the electoral ordeals and uncertainties of 2023.
If this speculative discourse is influencing Tinubu’s political behaviours ahead of the 2027 general elections, then the moves can be inferred as a positive development for the sanctity of the ballot box and the future of our electoral democracy. The moves can be interpreted as meaning that even the president is jittery that electoral surprises can be sprung up. Nothing is to be taken for granted. After all, INEC is no longer perceived as an extension of Aso Rock. Election returns cannot now be made while elections and counting are yet to commence.
This is the context within which to assess the current waves of decamping of politicians across the political parties but largely in favour of APC. Even, the Presidency’s friendship with the governors, which is being cultivated, is to be analysed in this historical context. President Obasanjo’s strategies of currying the favours of the opposition political parties prior to the 2007 general elections were not as scientific and persuasive as the current political manoeuvres. Obasanjo, not unexpectedly, relied on the use of excessive force, impeachment and blatant rigging to oust the then governors of Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, and Ondo states. Lagos State was the only deviant state.
At a rally in Abeokuta on 10 February, 2007, the then President Obasanjo said loudly that, “I will campaign. This election is a do-or-die affair for me and the PDP. This election is a matter of life and death for the PDP and Nigeria.”
It is doubtful if President Tinubu will utter a statement akin to this.
In any case, different politicians deploy varying electoral strategies of votes buying. Whatever the means of pursuing political ends, politicians must be conscious of not reversing our recent electoral gains. Our electoral system still remains fragile and may not yet withstand any travesty of electoral justice. But to my mind, the conduct of the political entrepreneurs, is, so far, so good. After all, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, himself, from the glimpses produced above, is entertaining some measures of trepidation and skepticism as to what political party is 2027 pregnant with. Nigeria is moving away from the perception that a ruling political party is a winning political party. No longer can any reasonable politician say that whether you vote for us or not, we have won. As our elections become more competitive, the era of landslides electoral victories may be gone.
Lai Olurode, a professor is a former National Commissioner, Independent National Electoral Commission.