Nigeria is targeting a major transformation of its petroleum industry by refining all of its crude oil locally by 2030, as the Federal Government moves to end decades of dependence on fuel imports and maximise value from the country’s hydrocarbon resources.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said the plan is anchored on a rapid expansion of domestic refining capacity and stronger enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) provisions contained in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
According to an S&P Global report, Nigeria currently produces about 1.74 million barrels of crude oil per day, with the Federal Government aiming to raise production to three million barrels per day by 2030.
The NMDPRA said that once the production target is achieved, every barrel of Nigerian crude is expected to be refined within the country rather than exported for processing abroad.
For decades, Nigeria exported most of its crude oil to refiners in Europe and Asia while importing large volumes of refined petroleum products. The government now says it intends to reverse that trend by expanding local refining and strengthening the country’s energy security.
The authority disclosed that Nigeria’s installed domestic refining capacity has risen to about 1.12 million barrels per day, driven largely by new investments in the downstream sector.
NMDPRA Chief Executive Officer, Rabiu Umar, said the authority was working closely with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to ensure strict compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act, which requires crude oil producers to allocate part of their production to domestic refineries.
“The Federal Government wishes to end the pattern where much of the country’s crude is exported and refined products imported,” Umar said.
“We are engaging the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to ensure that every molecule of our three million barrels per day that we hope to achieve in the coming years is refined locally.”
He noted that the Dangote Refinery has significantly boosted Nigeria’s refining capacity and is expected to play an even bigger role as it pursues plans to expand its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.
According to Umar, the NMDPRA is also working to resolve crude supply shortages experienced by domestic refineries to ensure they receive adequate feedstock for sustained operations.
Data released by the NUPRC on August 10 showed that 53.7 million barrels of Nigerian crude were supplied to domestic refineries during the second quarter of 2026.
Of that volume, 52.6 million barrels went to the Dangote Refinery, making it by far the largest recipient of locally supplied crude.
The upstream regulator disclosed that producers had actually offered the refinery 68.1 million barrels, a volume sufficient to meet its full crude requirements during the period.
Despite the increased allocations, the Dangote Refinery has previously indicated that securing adequate and reliable crude supplies remains one of its major operational challenges, prompting it to source crude from international markets to support production and expansion.
S&P Global noted that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, which was originally expected to supply most of the refinery’s crude requirements, faced limitations because much of its crude production had already been committed through forward-sale arrangements before the refinery commenced operations.
The report also highlighted that the Petroleum Industry Act, which came into effect in 2021, empowers the NUPRC to compel upstream operators to reserve specified volumes of crude oil and condensate for sale to domestic refineries under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework.
A spokesperson for the NUPRC confirmed that discussions involving the NMDPRA, the Federal Ministry of Finance and crude oil producers were ongoing to ensure effective enforcement of the legal provisions.
The commission had earlier disclosed that although upstream operators offered 68.7 million barrels of crude to domestic refineries during the first quarter of 2026, less than half of that volume was eventually delivered, largely because of disagreements over pricing between producers and local refiners.
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