IMPI: Tinubu Borrowing to Close Infrastructure Gap in Nigeria

Independent Media and Policy Initiative has defended the borrowing strategy of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, arguing that debt financing remains necessary to address Nigeria’s widening infrastructure deficit and support long-term economic growth.
In a policy statement issued by the group and signed by its chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank said Nigeria’s infrastructure needs far exceed what can realistically be funded through annual budgetary allocations.
The group stated that the country would require sustained investment running into trillions of dollars over several decades to close gaps in transport, energy, housing and other critical sectors.
According to IMPI, various international institutions have produced differing estimates of Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit, but all point to the need for significant capital expenditure beyond current fiscal capacity.
“The World Bank, which categorises Nigeria as a middle-income economy, estimated the nation’s total infrastructure stock to be approximately 30 per cent to 35 per cent of Gross Domestic Product,” the statement said.
The group noted that the figure remains far below the World Bank’s benchmark of 70 per cent for middle-income economies, underscoring the scale of Nigeria’s infrastructure challenge.
Citing World Bank projections, IMPI said Nigeria may require cumulative infrastructure investment of up to $3 trillion over 30 years to bridge the gap.
The think tank also referenced estimates from the African Development Bank, which placed Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit at about $2.3 trillion.
According to the statement, former AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina had projected that Nigeria would need annual infrastructure investment of roughly $15 billion over two decades to close the deficit.
The group further cited estimates from the International Finance Corporation, which put the financing requirement at approximately $2 trillion over 20 years.
Meanwhile, global consulting firm KPMG estimated that Nigeria would need annual infrastructure spending of at least $14.2 billion over 10 years, translating to a cumulative requirement of $142 billion.
IMPI argued that given Nigeria’s limited revenue base and competing fiscal obligations, borrowing remains one of the few viable options available to the government for financing critical infrastructure projects.
The group maintained that inadequate infrastructure continues to weigh on productivity, economic competitiveness and living standards across the country.
“Nigeria’s productivity and standard of living have been ascribed to the inadequacy of infrastructure over the years,” the statement said.
The defence of the Tinubu administration’s borrowing plans comes amid growing public debate over Nigeria’s rising debt profile and concerns about debt servicing costs.
The federal government has repeatedly argued that new borrowings are targeted largely at infrastructure development and are necessary to stimulate economic activity, improve connectivity and support private sector growth.