…Experts Trade Words Over Tinubunomics Phase Two
By Franklin Adole
A fierce war of ideas has broken out over the Federal Government’s sweeping new tax reforms scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, with Aso Rock and critics taking sharply opposing views on the fate of Nigerians in the new year just around the corner.
Dr. Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Economic Affairs, and Mohammed I. Tsav, an Abuja-based lawyer, clashed in strongly worded previews of what’s to come, deploying contrasting assessments of the five new tax laws signed by President Tinubu—which the government says are intended to overhaul, harmonise, and modernise Nigeria’s fiscal system.
In a position paper made available to KTH Daily, Dr. Fasua defended the reforms as “the most far-reaching rationalisation of Nigeria’s tax framework in decades,” insisting that the laws do not impose new burdens on citizens but instead eliminate the disorderly tax environment created by multiple agencies, conflicting statutes, and arbitrary enforcement. According to him, the reforms unify key tax laws, digitalise collection processes, simplify compliance for businesses, and protect low-income earners and small enterprises from undue pressure.
He argued that the contentious 4% Development Levy—criticised in social media debates as a fresh burden—is not a new creation, but a consolidation of several pre-existing levies charged by different agencies. “Some sectors were already paying more than 4% under various overlapping mandates,” he stated, adding that companies with turnover below ₦100 million are exempt. He asserted that the new structure ensures that no agency can impose fresh levies without statutory authority.
Dr. Fasua also addressed concerns over Free Trade Zones (FTZs), noting that the government has not abolished incentives but has aligned zone operations with global standards. Companies that export will continue to enjoy tax-free status, while those selling into the Nigerian market will be phased into the tax net over three years. He cited the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, and Mauritius as jurisdictions with similar models, arguing that FTZs must not become avenues for “tax-free domestic commerce.”
On the introduction of the internationally recognised 15% minimum tax for multinational corporations, Fasua said the reform is not unique to Nigeria but part of a global agreement adopted by more than 140 countries to prevent profit shifting. He warned that if Nigeria fails to implement it, foreign countries will collect revenues from multinational operations that should accrue to Nigeria. He described adoption as “a matter of national interest, not foreign pressure.”
But in a sharply contrasting position, Tsav dismissed the government’s optimism as “misguided and detached from the current realities of Nigerians.” He argued that introducing complex tax reforms at a time of rising insecurity, inflation, poverty, and what he described as “deep-seated corruption” amounts to “an assault on struggling citizens.”
Tsav warned that despite official assurances, the reforms will translate into higher operating costs for businesses, reduced disposable income for households, and increased pressure on small and medium enterprises already battling naira depreciation and weak consumer demand. He insisted that the 4% Development Levy is effectively a new tax burden “regardless of how it is labelled,” and described the consolidation explanation as “a cosmetic justification that does not change its impact.”
On Free Trade Zones, Tsav argued that the phased taxation of domestic sales would destabilise operators and deter new investment, adding that Nigeria risks losing competitiveness to regional rivals offering more predictable incentives. He condemned the adoption of the 15% minimum tax as “a concession to OECD-style policies that do not reflect the peculiarities of developing economies.”
The Abuja lawyer further cautioned that the reforms resemble frameworks promoted by international bodies, including the UN-OECD’s Tax Inspectors Without Borders (TIWB), which he fears could redirect Nigeria’s tax priorities toward foreign-designed models without addressing weak governance and revenue leakages. He said the reforms “ignore the fundamental problem of fiscal mismanagement,” warning that improved revenue collection without improved accountability will only “fuel corruption at a larger scale.”
While both men acknowledge the need for tax reform, they remain far apart on the timing, structure, and likely impact of the 2026 regime. Fasua insists the laws will simplify compliance, reduce arbitrary charges, and attract investment, while Tsav warns they will deepen hardship and heighten public distrust.
As the January 1 rollout approaches, business groups, investors, and state governments are closely watching how the nation will fare under the next phase of Tinubunomics.