Obi, Makinde And Hurdles Against Opposition Coalition – By Tunde Rahman

By Tunde Rahman

A fresh thaw in relations between National Democratic Congress presidential candidate Mr Peter Obi and Oyo State Governor Mr Seyi Makinde is fueling renewed talk of a possible opposition coalition to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
The two leaders, who were on opposite sides during the 2023 election cycle, were seen together recently at a private meeting in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, followed by joint appearances at public events including the inauguration of the Allied People’s Movement Presidential Campaign Office in Abuja last Monday. That campaign office belongs to Governor Makinde, a candidate in the race for the 2027 presidency on the APM platform.
The Obi-Makinde rapprochement comes after a plan by G-100, an amorphous group of opposition stakeholders advocating a united opposition front.
Obi’s appearance at the inauguration of Makinde’s campaign office may be seen as raising the stakes in that plan. It was the first time in recent memory that a presidential candidate would appear at the opening of a campaign office of a rival candidate. Do the two have a working alliance, or is this just make-believe? Sources close to both camps say their discussions centred on “national interest, governance, and 2027 permutations.”
In 2023, Makinde, then a PDP chieftain, was part of the influential G-5 governors who worked against the then Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, while Obi led the Labour Party’s surprise third-force movement. Their paths diverged sharply on that 2023 campaign trail.
But with four months to the January 16, 2027 presidential election, are the political realities forcing a rethink?
The answer to the foregoing may only be conjectural. The big question, however, is whether opposition leaders can put ego aside and present a united front in 2027.
In recent months, Governor Makinde has taken a more independent posture, often criticising federal policies while also calling for opposition unity. Wracked by an internal crisis within his PDP, he moved to the Allied People’s Movement to contest on the platform. Obi, on his part, has continued to mobilise his key support base under the “Obidient” movement and has not ruled out another presidential run.
Can a potential Obi-Makinde alignment become the nucleus of a wider opposition front that may include aggrieved members of the PDP (not Wike’s PDP), Labour Party, NNPP, ADC, and other groups, along with NDC and APM? Can the seeming rapprochement move the opposition from fragmentation to coordination?
Both Obi and Makinde have downplayed talks of a formal alliance, calling it “consultations among patriots.” Whether that produces a tangible result would depend on whether Obi, Makinde, and other opposition leaders, including the African Democratic Congress Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, can bridge personal, regional, and party differences before the election season heats up.
Beyond handshakes and meetings, does the opposition actually have the numbers, structure, and unity to pose a real threat to President Tinubu and the APC?
In my view, at least four factors are critical in deciding what happens.
The first is the incumbency advantage. President Tinubu controls the awesome federal machinery. That lever means a lot. He has many achievements under the Renewed Hope Agenda that will work in his favour: improving and stabilising the economy with key positive indicators; many legacy roads and infrastructure projects; strategic federal appointments; student loans; the CrediCorp programme; and the CNG initiative, among others.
The “Renewed Hope Agenda: from Reforms to Prosperity” narrative is built on the bet that reforms will start showing tangible results now that the economy has stabilised. Lower food inflation, foreign exchange stability, and completed infrastructure projects will be the campaign touchpoints.
The second and closely related point is that beating an incumbent in Nigeria is historically very hard. President Goodluck Jonathan, who was defeated by the APC coalition in 2015, is the only incumbent to have lost reelection in Nigeria’s history. And this was done by a coalition powered by late President Muhammadu Buhari and President Tinubu. Can the opposition reenact 2015 in 2027?
Third, party structure matters. The APC presently controls 31 states and has the largest grassroots party structure. Governors in the few other states not controlled by the party have declared support for President Tinubu’s reelection.These include Governors Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State in APGA, Labour Party’s Alex Otti in Abia and Accord Party’s Ademola Adeleke of Osun State. Some in the opposition may scoff at this point, arguing that the people, not the governors, will decide. That still does not diminish the governors’ influence.
Lastly, the opposition’s new maths is confounding. According to them, Tinubu won the election with 37% of the vote. That is the opposition’s opening lines. They will then say: Atiku + Obi/Kwankwaso + Makinde will provide the theoretical numbers to defeat the incumbent.
Yes, in 2023, the opposition parties ran separately, splitting the anti-APC vote, thus losing out and handing President Tinubu victory. In 2027, they must run together if they hope to pull any surprise. This is easier said than done.
Indeed, four big hurdles remain for an opposition coalition at this point, which can be categorised as reality/ambition/ego, zoning, formidable structure, and trust deficit.
The reality is that Obi, Atiku, and now possibly Makinde all have presidential ambitions. They all have vaulting ambitions, and ego is now at stake. Who steps down for whom? Who gets the vice president’s slot?
And then, there is the matter of zoning. The South wants to complete its eight years after the late President Buhari’s eight years. The North will argue it’s their turn soon again, possibly in 2031. A Northern candidate at this time may be swimming against the tide. Yet a Northern candidate promising one term in 2027 may be seen as shortchanging the North. To succeed, a ticket must balance this critical issue, or it collapses.
Forging a cohesive, formidable structure at this late hour, which is a difficult task, comes in again. And for Obi and Makinde, there could also be a trust deficit. PDP and LP fought bitterly in 2023. Can party structures at the state level now integrate and work together in one day?
The Obi-Makinde alliance seems like a test. If they can agree on a framework and bring in more governors, the coalition becomes serious. If not, it remains mere optics.
The 2027 election will not be won on personalities alone. It will also be won on some kitchen-table issues, of which the APC needs to be wary.
The elephant in the room is the cost of living. If food, transport, and electricity are still perceived as high by Q4 2026, “we did the hard part” may not move much. The opposition will run on “Tinubu made life harder,” which is what they want people to believe.
Security is the other critical issue. The government and security agencies must maintain the present apparently favourable security situation. Any major security breakdown in the North or Middle Belt will be weaponised.
In the final analysis, the opposition can only pose a threat if three things happen. The first is one-ticket. That is, a consensus presidential candidate emerges now, not later. Second, if some governors defect or align, the opposition will need at least eight to ten governors to provide the structure and resources to make a big impact.
If those two things don’t happen, President Tinubu wins again, likely with a bigger margin than in 2023 as the APC consolidates and the opposition remains fragmented.
The Obi-Makinde rapprochement is not a coalition. It is a signal that opposition leaders know they lost in 2023 because they were divided. It signals that they are now testing the waters.
Whether that signal becomes a threat depends on whether they can do what Nigerian politicians have failed to do for 25 years: put country and strategy ahead of personal ambition.
President Tinubu is the favourite. But for the first time since 2023, APC may now have something to worry about.

•Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media & Special Duties.