2027: Ex-Rep Counters Babachir Lawal, Says Projection That Atiku Will Lose Election Lacks Basis

A former member of the House of Representatives, and Special Adviser to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) National Chairman on Research, Policy, and Strategy, Chille Igbawua, has dismissed former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal’s projection that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would lose the 2027 presidential election, describing it as lacking a scientific basis and saying it amounted to nothing more than a prayer rather than an evidence-based projection.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Igbawua argued that Lawal offered no facts or analysis to support his prediction, maintaining that while everyone has the right to pray, such personal wishes cannot be presented as credible electoral projections.
“I think the statement that this projection need not be commented upon is a right one. When you just say you are praying—as a matter of prayer, everyone has a right to pray—he said, ‘I pray he loses. He will surely lose. I pray he loses.’ That is not a scientific approach to a projection that you can argue against. So it becomes difficult to argue against a person who has no basis for making a projection.
“I believe that ADC has its programs well set out. I believe that we have one of the most robust manifestos of any political party in Nigeria at the moment. We have a clear-cut policy document that we are going to work on, and our objective has always been—and has not changed—to rescue Nigeria from the drift that we are witnessing continually. We are working on what it takes to win an election. So when we speak about winning, we’re not speaking just rhetorics; we’re speaking from the work and the analysis we’re doing,” he insisted.
Addressing the exit of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi from the ADC, Igbawua said Obi was never part of the original opposition coalition that later adopted the party, noting that he only joined after the coalition had concluded its processes and chosen the ADC as its platform.
“The project started long, long before Peter Obi came in. Let us not make the mistake of thinking that Peter Obi was part of this opposition coalition movement that transmuted into the ADC—he was not. He only came in December last year, 31st of December last year, after everything had been done, and we had gone through all the processes of what we needed to do. We had chosen a platform before he came in,” he asserted.
Responding to criticism over the ADC’s presidential primaries, Igbawua defended the process as constitutional and compliant with the Electoral Act, acknowledging that while it was not perfect, it reflected a greater commitment to internal democracy than the candidate selection processes of other political parties, which he said largely relied on consensus or outright appointments.
“And of course, they are all wrong. Everything that we did from the beginning up to this point is in accordance with the constitution of the party, in accordance with the Electoral Act, and in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. So when somebody makes such allegations, he should justify them.
“I do not insist that this was the cleanest primaries that ever held, but I also agree that there is no political party that has subjected itself to the processes that we did. Certainly Labour Party did not; APC did not. They simply just selected candidates. Then others didn’t even attempt it. So there’s no basis for criticizing that. It is because we opened ourselves to the democratic process, that’s why you can assess us. We’re saying whereas it may not be perfect, what we did had a closer appearance of internal democracy than what any other party in Nigeria today has had,” he maintained.
Igbawua further argued that comparing an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket against Atiku alone was an incomplete assessment, insisting that political calculations must consider the full tickets.
He pointed to Rotimi Amaechi’s previous performance in the APC presidential primary as evidence that the Atiku-Amaechi ticket also carries significant political weight, adding that Lawal’s assessment was driven more by personal opinion than scientific analysis.
“That is when you are saying Atiku has no running mate. You are putting two together on that ticket; you must put two on this ticket too. Remember that Rotimi Amaechi contested presidency under APC and came second, so he’s not a push-over either. So if you put a ticket, you must also count the ticket as two people coming together.
“Of course, if somebody has been in a project and had expectations which have failed, he’s bound to be frustrated, and I understand why the former SGF expressed frustration, which he did when he was leaving the party. But I don’t think that a personal opinion about an individual, just because you’re praying that somebody loses an election, is a sufficient scientific assessment of that person’s candidacy. The two of them put together certainly are stronger, even when you talk about historical perspective. But I’m saying now, we know what is going on and we know what we are doing towards achieving our goal. I believe that it is absolutely faulty to suggest that an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is stronger than an Atiku-Rotimi Amaechi ticket. Certainly not,” he argued.
Acknowledging Atiku Abubakar’s political standing, Igbawua emphasised that the former vice president has a stronger electoral record than the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket, noting that they had contested against each other in the past and Atiku emerged ahead. He, however, redirected attention to the ADC’s policy agenda, saying the party’s focus is on building a governance framework driven by its manifesto rather than individual personalities.