Nigeria’s gas sector posted modest production growth in the first quarter of 2026, but beneath the headline increase lies a more consequential shift: the country is gradually producing less gas from crude oil operations and more from dedicated gas developments.
Fresh data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that total gas production rose from 667.27 billion standard cubic feet (BSCF) in Q1 2025 to 687.09 billion scf in Q1 2026, representing an increase of just under 3 per cent.
On the surface, the growth appears incremental. But the underlying composition of production suggests Nigeria’s long-running “Decade of Gas” strategy may be slowly taking structural shape.
For years, a large share of Nigeria’s gas output has come as associated gas, produced alongside crude oil extraction. That model tied gas availability closely to oil production cycles and limited the country’s ability to build a stable, gas-driven industrial economy.
The latest figures indicate a gradual departure from that dependence.
Associated gas production fell sharply from 370.28 billion scf in Q1 2025 to 332.82 billion scf in the same period of 2026. At the same time, non-associated gas production, sourced from standalone gas fields and dedicated gas projects, climbed significantly from 296.99 billion scf to 354.17 billion scf.
That transition matters because non-associated gas is generally considered more commercially strategic for long-term domestic supply planning, industrial feedstock, and export reliability.
The data also points to improved operational efficiency in flare management, an area where Nigeria has faced decades of environmental criticism and revenue losses.
Total gas flared dropped from 50.95 billion scf in Q1 2025 to 46.83 billion scf in Q1 2026, an 8.1 per cent decline year-on-year. Flare intensity also improved, with the average flare rate falling from 7.65 per cent to 6.81 per cent over the same period.
The reduction suggests that more producers are capturing gas for commercial use rather than burning it off, aligning with the Federal Government’s ongoing flare commercialisation agenda under the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme.
Still, the numbers reveal a contradiction at the centre of Nigeria’s gas policy.
While export gas sales surged by over 30 per cent to 292.87 billion scf, domestic gas sales declined by about 8.5 per cent to 171.15 billion scf.
That imbalance reinforces concerns that Nigeria’s gas expansion continues to favour export earnings over domestic energy security, despite repeated government promises to prioritise local industrialisation and power generation.
The export growth was likely supported by stronger LNG demand and improved international market conditions. But the softer domestic supply raises questions about whether industries and gas-fired power plants are receiving adequate volumes to support economic activity at home.
Interestingly, despite higher overall production, total utilised gas remained virtually flat at about 639 billion scf, indicating that production gains have not yet translated into substantially higher domestic consumption.
With proven reserves estimated at over 215 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria remains Africa’s largest gas reserve holder. But the latest figures suggest the real challenge is no longer resource availability. It is whether the country can convert rising production into reliable domestic energy, industrial growth, and long-term economic value.