ExxonMobil is preparing a new wave of multi-billion-dollar deepwater investments in Nigeria, signalling a potential turning point for an offshore sector that has struggled with declining capital inflows and regulatory uncertainty in recent years.
The US oil major outlined its plans during a high-level engagement with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in Abuja on Tuesday, where executives briefed officials on project timelines, asset development strategies and its long-term commitment to the country. A statement on the meeting was issued the same day by the Commission’s Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu.
At the centre of ExxonMobil’s renewed push is a portfolio of offshore assets that could collectively attract more than $20 billion in capital if final approvals are secured. The company is targeting a Final Investment Decision, or FID, on at least one major project as early as 2027, a move that would rank among the most significant upstream commitments in Nigeria in nearly a decade.
“We are encouraged by the improved investment climate in Nigeria,” said Hunter Farris, Senior Vice President for Deepwater at ExxonMobil Upstream Company, during the Abuja meeting. “That is why we are here to renew our vows to Nigeria.”
The renewed interest comes as Nigerian authorities intensify efforts to reposition the oil and gas sector following years of underinvestment, driven by fiscal uncertainty, project delays and capital migration to more predictable jurisdictions. Policy reforms anchored on the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 have begun to reshape investor sentiment, particularly in deepwater fields where security risks are lower and reserves are substantial.
A key anchor for ExxonMobil’s strategy is the Erha deepwater field, one of Nigeria’s flagship offshore assets, which marked 20 years of operations alongside the company’s visit. The production sharing contract for Erha has been extended to 2042, providing long-term visibility for investment planning.
Farris said the company has already commenced extensive life-extension work on the Erha Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel, or FPSO, aimed at restoring output efficiency and prolonging field life. The upgrades are expected to stabilise production while creating a platform for adjacent developments.
Beyond Erha, ExxonMobil is advancing drilling campaigns at the Usan field and accelerating engineering work on the Owowo project, which is emerging as one of Nigeria’s most commercially viable undeveloped deepwater assets.
The Owowo field alone is estimated to hold about one billion barrels of recoverable resources and could require between $7 billion and $8 billion in development spending. The company said it is progressing technical and commercial evaluations with a view to reaching an FID decision within the next investment cycle.
More consequential is the Bosi field, located near Erha, which ExxonMobil estimates could attract between $15 billion and $16 billion if developed with a new FPSO and associated subsea infrastructure. Combined, the Owowo and Bosi projects represent a scale of investment that could materially shift Nigeria’s upstream outlook.
“These investments show that we are getting back in business and we are serious about what we are doing,” Farris said, describing the company’s strategy as part of a broader “rejuvenation of deepwater” activity in Nigeria.
For regulators, ExxonMobil’s signals are a validation of recent policy adjustments aimed at improving the ease of doing business in the sector. Responding during the meeting, NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said the prospect of near-term FIDs was a strong vote of confidence.
“To hear that Final Investment Decisions are likely next year is very exciting,” she said on Tuesday, adding that the Commission would continue to provide regulatory support to ensure projects move forward.
Eyesan reiterated the regulator’s commitment to balancing investor returns with national value creation, noting that deepwater developments remain critical to Nigeria’s production growth and foreign exchange earnings.
Nigeria’s offshore segment has historically attracted the bulk of large-scale upstream investment due to its resource depth and relative insulation from the security challenges that have disrupted onshore and shallow-water operations. However, investment slowed sharply over the past decade as operators deferred projects amid uncertainty over fiscal terms and a global shift toward lower-carbon energy sources.
Recent reforms appear to be reversing that trend. The Petroleum Industry Act introduced clearer fiscal frameworks, streamlined regulatory processes and enhanced contract sanctity, factors industry participants say are essential for long-cycle deepwater projects.
If ExxonMobil proceeds with its outlined investments, the impact could extend beyond production volumes. Large-scale offshore developments typically generate significant demand across the supply chain, from engineering and fabrication to logistics and local content services, potentially supporting job creation and industrial activity.
For Nigeria, which is seeking to stabilise output and boost dollar inflows, the stakes are high. Deepwater projects often take several years to move from FID to first oil, making early commitment critical to sustaining medium-term production levels.
ExxonMobil’s renewed push suggests that global majors may be recalibrating their Nigeria strategies after years of portfolio restructuring. Whether that translates into a broader industry rebound will depend on the consistency of policy execution and the government’s ability to maintain a stable investment climate.
For now, the company’s timeline, anchored on a potential 2027 FID and multi-billion-dollar project pipeline, offers one of the clearest indications yet that Nigeria’s deepwater sector could be entering a new investment cycle.