Unease in the Military over Phantom Coup Plot

…Retired Generals Dismiss Claims as “Illogical” and “Impossible”
…Back DHQ that arrests administrative, not political

By Yinka Giwa

Retired generals of the Nigerian Armed Forces have dismissed as “phantom” and “illogical” the alleged coup plot for which 16 military officers were reportedly arrested last week, warning that such unfounded claims could unsettle the military and weaken public confidence in its leadership.

Speaking exclusively but off the record to KTH Daily over the weekend, two retired generals from the military intelligence corps said the entire episode “smacks of the old days of phantom coup plots,” designed more to send warnings and consolidate control within the ranks than to confront any real threat to the nation’s governance.

The generals, both of whom served in senior intelligence capacities, questioned how a group of mid-level officers led by a Brigadier-General, “all manning desks at the Office of the National Security Adviser” could possibly have planned to topple the complex machinery of the Nigerian federal government.

“How were these officers going to execute this plot?” one of them asked rhetorically. “Even if they succeeded in eliminating top civilian functionaries, they still had the commanding heights of the military to contend with. A coup is not a suicide mission.”

Their comments came in the wake of reports by SaharaReporters that 16 officers, from the ranks of Captain to Brigadier General, were detained for allegedly planning to overthrow President Bola Tinubu’s government. The online publication claimed that the alleged coup plot was the reason the October 1 Independence Day parade was abruptly cancelled.

The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) swiftly dismissed the report, describing it as “false, malicious, and intended to cause unnecessary tension.” Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, Director of Defence Information, said the officers were being investigated for “indiscipline and breach of service regulations,” not treason. He added that their grievances stemmed from “repeated failure in promotion examinations and perceived career stagnation.”

But while the DHQ statement sought to calm nerves, the retired generals who spoke to KTH Daily went further to cast doubt on the entire notion of a coup plot, insisting that such claims were “militarily illogical.”

Drawing from history, one of the generals cited the 1990 Major Gideon Orkar coup attempt as a reminder that even coups led by active field commanders collapsed swiftly once it became clear that the top brass had not sanctioned them.

“The Orkar coup drew its strength from troops in Ikeja and Ojo cantonments,” he recalled. “Yet it was crushed within hours once the top command moved in. How could officers working at desks in the NSA office possibly hope to outmaneuver the Guards Brigade and the entire defence structure of Aso Rock?”

The second general referenced the 1976 Lt. Col. Bukar Suka Dimka coup, which succeeded only in assassinating then Head of State General Murtala Muhammed before being swiftly crushed by loyal forces under the command of Colonel Joe Garba.

“No coup in Nigeria has ever succeeded without the involvement of the top military leadership,” he said. “The idea that a handful of officers could launch one from office desks in Abuja is simply absurd.”

Both generals agreed that if there had been a genuine coup attempt, the dragnet of arrests would have “widened considerably by now to include troop commanders and rank-and-file soldiers with access to weapons.” Instead, they said, “what appears to have happened is the detention of a few disgruntled officers nursing career grievances, not a plot to seize power.”

They further warned that reports of phantom coups could heighten mistrust within the ranks and create unnecessary panic, urging the media to exercise restraint in reporting security matters.

“These kinds of stories put the entire military on edge,” one of them cautioned. “Given the concentric layers of security around the presidential villa, no soldier with any sense would imagine plotting a coup and hope to succeed.”

The generals also mocked the suggestion that a Brigadier General could lead a coup from the NSA office and somehow depose his superiors.

“So you think a Brigadier sitting behind a desk can send home all the service chiefs, general staff officers, and GOCs from Abuja?” one asked with a wry smile. “That’s not just improbable, it’s laughable.”

Both men commended the Defence Headquarters for promptly clarifying the matter and reaffirming the armed forces’ loyalty to the constitution and to President Tinubu’s civilian government.

“The DHQ handled this well,” one said. “They swiftly corrected the misinformation and reassured Nigerians of the military’s loyalty. That’s what professionalism looks like.”

As the investigation into the arrested officers continues, KTH Daily understands from its sources that the matter is being treated as an internal disciplinary issue, one that may expose administrative lapses within the officer corps, but not treason.

Still, the retired generals warned that episodes like this risk evoking dangerous memories of past political manipulations within the military, the kind that once destabilized Nigeria extensively.

“We’ve seen this movie before,” one of them concluded. “Phantom coup plots, anonymous reports, sudden arrests: it’s all too familiar. The armed forces must stay professional and above politics.”

The Defence Headquarters, in its official statement signed by Brigadier General Gusau on October 18, 2025, reiterated that the Armed Forces of Nigeria “remain firmly loyal to the Constitution and the Commander-in-Chief, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” and urged Nigerians to disregard what it called “falsehoods being circulated by purveyors of misinformation and enemies of our nation.”